Market Update: Will Tomorrow’s Inflation Report Be a Valentine for Buyers? Date: February 12, 2026

Valentine’s Day is this Saturday, but the real estate market is looking for some love a little early—specifically, tomorrow morning.

We are currently sitting in a "wait-and-see" window. Today (Thursday) is relatively quiet, but it is the calm before what could be the most significant financial news day of the month. Here is the breakdown of what happened last week, what is happening tomorrow, and why you should care if you are house hunting in Prescott.

The Rearview Mirror: Jobs Data Cooled Down

First, the good news. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January Jobs Report. The numbers showed that hiring has cooled slightly compared to the frantic pace of 2025.

• Why this matters: A "cooler" labor market is exactly what the Federal Reserve wants to see. It signals that the economy isn't overheating, which takes pressure off inflation. As a result, mortgage rates have remained stable and friendly throughout this week.

• 
  

The Big Event: Tomorrow (Friday the 13th)

Tomorrow morning—Friday, February 13th—we get the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the big one. The CPI measures inflation, and it is the primary scorecard the Fed uses to decide if they will cut rates again in March.

• The Bull Case (What we want): If tomorrow’s report shows inflation coming in lower than expected, it could be a massive "Valentine" for buyers. It would likely cement the case for a March rate cut, potentially sending mortgage rates lower heading into the weekend.

• The Bear Case (What to watch out for): If the numbers come in "hot" (showing inflation sticking around), we could see a knee-jerk reaction where rates bump up slightly as lenders protect themselves against risk.

• 
  

Local Spotlight: The "Spring" Rush is Here

While the financial markets are watching charts, the Prescott housing market is watching moving vans. We are seeing a definitive uptick in open house traffic this week. The "waiting for spring" strategy is officially over; serious buyers are out now.

• Inventory Note: We have seen a few more listings hit the Quad-Cities MLS this week, but well-priced homes are still moving quickly. The stability of rates over the last two weeks has given buyers the confidence to write offers.

• 
  

Your Action Plan

Because tomorrow is a major news day, volatility is possible.

• If you are under contract: You are likely already locked, so you can enjoy your weekend.

• If you are shopping: Talk to your lender today. Ask them about their strategy for tomorrow morning. Some lenders may recommend locking in your rate before the report comes out to protect you from a potential spike. Others may suggest "floating" if they feel confident the news will be good.

Don't have a lender who watches the markets this closely for you? Call us, and I’ll introduce you to my preferred local partners.

• Disclaimer: I am a real estate agent, not a mortgage lender or financial advisor. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and references national average trends, which may not reflect the rates or loan products available to you specifically. Interest rates and economic indicators (like the CPI) are subject to change without notice. Please consult a qualified mortgage professional for current rates and personalized financial advice.